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Resovia Rzeszow vs Kalisz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 16:00

Resovia Rzeszow

PPG 1.57 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kalisz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.8%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.5%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.4%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 57.8% 1.73 -14.2%

Draw 27.7% 30.3% 3.30 -8.6%

Away win 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -8.8%

Over 2.5 52.1% — — —

Over 3.5 30.0% — — —

BTTS 55.5% 58.8% 1.70 -5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.5%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Resovia Rzeszow1.7

Kalisz1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RESOVIA RZESZOW · PPG 1.57

KALISZ · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.57) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Resovia Rzeszow (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -14.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.6%

Kalisz (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Resovia Rzeszow face Kalisz in Poland - II Liga - East on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Resovia Rzeszow a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Kalisz 23%, so Resovia Rzeszow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Resovia Rzeszow and 1.1 for Kalisz (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Resovia Rzeszow are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.00 for Kalisz. This match finished 0-1.

Resovia Rzeszow vs Kalisz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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