Today / Austria - Frauenliga / St. Polten W vs Sturm Graz W

St. Polten W vs Sturm Graz W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Championship Group - 20 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 16:00

St. Polten W

PPG 2.30 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sturm Graz W

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.2%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.3%1-19.1%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.9%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.1%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-16.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.3% — — —

Draw 22.8% — — —

Away win 17.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 41.0% — — —

BTTS 60.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.2%

H 60% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.0%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Polten W2.2

Sturm Graz W1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. POLTEN W · PPG 2.30

STURM GRAZ W · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.30), Away EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

St. Polten W (H) 60.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sturm Graz W (A) 17.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Polten W face Sturm Graz W in Austria - Frauenliga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Polten W a 60% chance, the draw 23% and Sturm Graz W 17%, so St. Polten W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for St. Polten W and 1.1 for Sturm Graz W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Polten W are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 2.40 for Sturm Graz W. This match finished 2-0.

St. Polten W vs Sturm Graz W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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