Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Super Nova vs Auda

Super Nova vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 15:00

Super Nova

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Auda

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-110.1%0-28.8%0-35.1%0-4+3.3%1 1-06.3%1-111.1%1-29.7%1-35.7%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.5%2-16.1%2-25.4%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

Draw 26.9% 28.2% 3.55 -4.5%

Away win 50.9% 58.8% 1.70 -13.5%

Over 2.5 54.4% 54.1% 1.85 +0.6%

Over 3.5 32.1% 31.3% 3.20 +2.7%

BTTS 56.9% 56.5% 1.77 +0.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob56.9%

A 51% / xG 1.1-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2✓ 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Super Nova1.1

Auda1.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SUPER NOVA · PPG 0.33

AUDA · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Super Nova (H) 22.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -4.5%

Auda (A) 50.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Super Nova face Auda in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Super Nova a 22% chance, the draw 27% and Auda 51%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Super Nova and 1.8 for Auda (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Super Nova are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 2.60 for Auda. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Super Nova vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - Virsliga Predictions