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Swit Skolwin vs Podbeskidzie Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 30 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 14:00

Swit Skolwin

PPG 1.71 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Podbeskidzie

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.0% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.8%0-24.9%0-32.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.7%1-19.7%1-28.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-18.2%2-26.9%2-33.9%2-4+2.5%3 3-02.7%3-14.6%3-23.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 26.7% 3.75 +38.0%

Draw 25.6% 29.4% 3.40 -13.0%

Away win 37.5% 57.1% 1.75 -34.4%

Over 2.5 65.7% — — —

Over 3.5 43.8% — — —

BTTS 68.0% 62.5% 1.60 +8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob68.0%

A 38% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2✓ 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Swit Skolwin1.7

Podbeskidzie1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.7% · O3.5 PROB 43.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SWIT SKOLWIN · PPG 1.71

PODBESKIDZIE · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.71) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Swit Skolwin (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +38.0%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.0%

Podbeskidzie (A) 37.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -34.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Swit Skolwin face Podbeskidzie in Poland - II Liga - East on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swit Skolwin a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Podbeskidzie 38%, so Podbeskidzie are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Swit Skolwin and 1.7 for Podbeskidzie (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swit Skolwin are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.33 for Podbeskidzie. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Swit Skolwin vs Podbeskidzie Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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