Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Tukums vs FS Jelgava

Tukums vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

Tukums

PPG 0.60 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.1%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.7%1-112.2%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.2%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.6%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 37.7% 2.65 +16.1%

Draw 29.3% 29.9% 3.35 -1.8%

Away win 26.9% 42.0% 2.38 -36.0%

Over 2.5 49.3% 55.6% 1.80 -11.3%

Over 3.5 27.4% 33.3% 3.00 -17.8%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 0–0 7.1%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tukums1.5

FS Jelgava1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.3% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TUKUMS · PPG 0.60

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.25

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.25) strong but model favors Home (P=43.8%)

Win probability 1X2

Tukums (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +16.1%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.8%

FS Jelgava (A) 26.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tukums face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tukums a 44% chance, the draw 29% and FS Jelgava 27%, so Tukums are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tukums and 1.1 for FS Jelgava (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tukums are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.25 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 5-0.

Tukums vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - Virsliga Predictions