Tukums vs FS Jelgava Prediction & Tips

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Latvia - Virsliga Regular Season - 10 Friday, May 1, 2026 13:00

Tukums PPG 0.60

5-0 MISS

FS Jelgava PPG 1.25

Home· +16.1% ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.8%

Odds: 2.65 EV: +16.1%

Draw 29.3%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -1.8%

Away 26.9%

Odds: 2.38 EV: -36.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.3% Odds: 1.80 -11.3%

Over 3.5 27.4% Odds: 3.00 -17.8%

BTTS 54.7% Odds: 1.62 -11.4%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Tukums

1.51

FS Jelgava

1.14

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+16.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.25) strong but model favors Home (P=43.8%)