Today / Narva Trans vs Nomme Kalju

Narva Trans vs Nomme Kalju Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

Narva Trans

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Nomme Kalju

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-19.8%0-211.0%0-38.2%0-4+7.7%1 1-03.9%1-18.8%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.8%2 2-01.7%2-13.9%2-24.3%2-33.2%2-4+3.0%3 3-00.5%3-11.2%3-21.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.3% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 66.5% — — —

Over 2.5 60.3% — — —

Over 3.5 38.0% — — —

BTTS 53.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob53.9%

A 66% / xG 0.9-2.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.0%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 0–3✓ 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Narva Trans0.9

Nomme Kalju2.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 38.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NARVA TRANS · PPG 1.50

NOMME KALJU · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Narva Trans (H) 12.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nomme Kalju (A) 66.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Narva Trans face Nomme Kalju on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Narva Trans a 12% chance, the draw 21% and Nomme Kalju 67%, so Nomme Kalju are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Narva Trans and 2.2 for Nomme Kalju (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Narva Trans are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.25 for Nomme Kalju. This match finished 0-3.

Narva Trans vs Nomme Kalju Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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