Today / Henan SL vs Liaoning Tieren

Henan SL vs Liaoning Tieren Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

Henan SL

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Liaoning Tieren

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-111.6%0-25.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.3%1-113.4%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.2%2-17.7%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-13.0%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% — — —

Draw 33.8% — — —

Away win 27.6% — — —

Over 2.5 34.7% — — —

Over 3.5 15.9% — — —

BTTS 43.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob43.6%

H 39% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 1–0 14.3%

#4 0–1 11.6%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Henan SL1.2

Liaoning Tieren0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 15.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HENAN SL · PPG 1.00

LIAONING TIEREN · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Henan SL (H) 38.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Liaoning Tieren (A) 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Henan SL face Liaoning Tieren on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Henan SL a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Liaoning Tieren 28%, so Henan SL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Henan SL and 0.9 for Liaoning Tieren (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Henan SL are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Liaoning Tieren. This match finished 4-0.

Henan SL vs Liaoning Tieren Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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