Today / Al Ahli vs Al Buqaa

Al Ahli vs Al Buqaa Prediction

Friday, May 1, 2026

Al Ahli

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Buqaa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.4%0-25.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.6%1-110.4%1-28.2%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.5%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.9%3-14.6%3-23.6%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.7%4+-22.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% — — —

Draw 26.5% — — —

Away win 35.7% — — —

Over 2.5 62.3% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 65.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob65.5%

H 38% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–0 4.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahli1.6

Al Buqaa1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLI · PPG 0.33

AL BUQAA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahli (H) 37.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Buqaa (A) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli face Al Buqaa on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli a 38% chance, the draw 27% and Al Buqaa 36%, so Al Ahli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Ahli and 1.6 for Al Buqaa (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Buqaa. This match finished 0-2.

Al Ahli vs Al Buqaa Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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