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Al Markhiya vs Lusail City Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:00

Al Markhiya

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lusail City

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+17.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-17.7%0-27.8%0-35.2%0-4+4.2%1 1-04.7%1-19.6%1-29.7%1-36.5%1-4+5.3%2 2-02.9%2-16.0%2-26.1%2-34.1%2-4+3.3%3 3-01.2%3-12.5%3-22.5%3-31.7%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.2% 47.6% 2.10 -51.3%

Draw 21.4% 29.4% 3.40 -27.2%

Away win 55.4% 34.7% 2.88 +59.6%

Over 2.5 63.5% 54.1% 1.85 +17.5%

Over 3.5 41.4% — — —

BTTS 61.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.9%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 0–2✓ 7.8%

#4 0–1 7.7%

#5 1–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Markhiya1.2

Lusail City2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL MARKHIYA · PPG 1.83

LUSAIL CITY · PPG 2.17

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.83) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

Al Markhiya (H) 23.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -51.3%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -27.2%

Lusail City (A) 55.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +59.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Markhiya face Lusail City in Qatar - Second Division on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Markhiya a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Lusail City 55%, so Lusail City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Markhiya and 2.0 for Lusail City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Markhiya are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 2.17 for Lusail City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.6%. This match finished 0-2.

Al Markhiya vs Lusail City Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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