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Al Mesaimeer vs Muaither SC Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 14:15

Al Mesaimeer

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Muaither SC

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+10.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.4%0-24.2%0-32.7%0-4+2.0%1 1-04.2%1-18.2%1-27.9%1-35.0%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.9%2-17.6%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.4%3-14.7%3-24.5%3-32.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.3%4+-23.2%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 38.5% 2.60 -0.4%

Draw 21.8% 28.6% 3.50 -14.2%

Away win 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Over 2.5 68.2% 61.7% 1.62 +10.5%

Over 3.5 45.4% 40.7% 2.46 +11.7%

BTTS 63.1% 66.2% 1.51 -4.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 45.7% 2.19 +23.3%

Away O1.5 56.9% 51.8% 1.93 +9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -65.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.1%

A 40% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Mesaimeer1.9

Muaither SC1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL MESAIMEER · PPG 1.55

MUAITHER SC · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Mesaimeer (H) 38.3%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -0.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.2%

Muaither SC (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Mesaimeer face Muaither SC in Qatar - Second Division on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Mesaimeer a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Muaither SC 40%, so Muaither SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Mesaimeer and 1.9 for Muaither SC (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Mesaimeer are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.73 for Muaither SC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +23.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Al Mesaimeer vs Muaither SC Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Qatar - Second Division Predictions