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Al Khor vs Al Bidda Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:00

Al Khor

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Bidda

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.8%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.5%1-19.8%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-110.0%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.5%3-16.7%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.4%4+-22.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 57.8% 1.73 +4.5%

Draw 21.0% 27.0% 3.70 -22.3%

Away win 18.6% 27.0% 3.70 -31.2%

Over 2.5 59.0% 60.6% 1.65 -2.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% — — —

BTTS 55.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 60% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 10.0%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Khor2.0

Al Bidda1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHOR · PPG 1.00

AL BIDDA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Al Khor (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +4.5%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -22.3%

Al Bidda (A) 18.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Khor face Al Bidda in Qatar - Second Division on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Khor a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Al Bidda 19%, so Al Khor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Al Khor and 1.0 for Al Bidda (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Khor are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Bidda. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Al Khor vs Al Bidda Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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