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Al Kharaitiyat vs Al-Khor Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:30

Al Kharaitiyat

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al-Khor

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.2%0-25.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.0%1-111.9%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.7%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.2%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 58.8% 1.70 -28.3%

Draw 27.9% 27.8% 3.60 +0.3%

Away win 30.0% 25.6% 3.90 +17.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 30.8% 35.1% 2.85 -12.2%

BTTS 52.7% 54.9% 1.82 -4.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 40.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

ROI -65.4%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

H 42% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Kharaitiyat1.5

Al-Khor1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHARAITIYAT · PPG 1.64

AL-KHOR · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al Kharaitiyat (H) 42.2%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -28.3%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.3%

Al-Khor (A) 30.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Kharaitiyat face Al-Khor in Qatar - Second Division on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Kharaitiyat a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Al-Khor 30%, so Al Kharaitiyat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Kharaitiyat and 1.3 for Al-Khor (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Kharaitiyat are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.36 for Al-Khor. This match finished 3-1.

Al Kharaitiyat vs Al-Khor Prediction— Qatar - Second Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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