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Bahia W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Regular Season - 8 ·Tuesday, April 28, 2026, 21:00

Bahia W

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gremio W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.9%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.4%1-110.4%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.8%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.6%4+-22.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 50.0% 2.00 -12.6%

Draw 28.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.0%

Away win 28.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.8%

Over 2.5 59.0% 55.6% 1.80 +6.2%

Over 3.5 39.0% 33.3% 3.00 +17.0%

BTTS 58.5% 60.6% 1.65 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -30.5%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia W1.8

Gremio W1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA W · PPG 2.25

GREMIO W · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=43.7%

Win probability 1X2

Bahia W (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -12.6%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.0%

Gremio W (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia W face Gremio W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia W a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Gremio W 28%, so Bahia W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bahia W and 1.4 for Gremio W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia W are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Gremio W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Bahia W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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