Bahia W vs Gremio W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Brazil - Brasileiro Women Regular Season - 8 Estadio Joia da Princesa· Feira de Santana Tuesday, April 28, 2026 21:00

Bahia W PPG 2.25

0-2 MISS

Gremio W PPG 1.00

Over3.5· +17.0% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia W face Gremio W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia W a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Gremio W 28%, so Bahia W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bahia W and 1.4 for Gremio W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia W are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Gremio W. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 43.7%

Odds: 2.00 EV: -12.6%

Draw 28.3%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -8.0%

Away 28.0%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -4.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.80 +6.2%

Over 3.5 39.0% Odds: 3.00 +17.0%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.65 -3.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Bahia W

1.76

Gremio W

1.41

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +6.2% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+17.0%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5/Under 51%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -67.8%

Bet Hit 17% (6 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=43.7%