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Espanyol vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 32 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 19:00

Espanyol

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Levante

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 53% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.9%0-23.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.0%1-110.7%1-26.4%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.9%3-15.9%3-23.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.0%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 47.6% 2.10 -2.8%

Draw 28.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.0%

Away win 25.4% 28.2% 3.55 -9.8%

Over 2.5 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 35.4% 28.2% 3.55 +25.7%

BTTS 58.5% 55.6% 1.80 +5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0✓ 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Espanyol1.8

Levante1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ESPANYOL · PPG 1.40

LEVANTE · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Espanyol (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -2.8%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.0%

Levante (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Espanyol face Levante in Spain - La Liga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Espanyol a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Levante 25%, so Espanyol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Espanyol and 1.2 for Levante (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Espanyol are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Levante. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Espanyol vs Levante Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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