Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Ogre United vs FS Jelgava

Ogre United vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 16:00

Ogre United

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

FS Jelgava

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-115.9%0-27.4%0-32.3%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.4%1-113.3%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.0%2-15.6%2-22.6%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 31.3% 3.20 +17.4%

Draw 33.2% 30.3% 3.30 +9.6%

Away win 30.1% 48.8% 2.05 -38.3%

Over 2.5 38.0% 51.8% 1.93 -26.7%

Over 3.5 10.3% 29.9% 3.35 -65.5%

BTTS 48.6% 58.8% 1.70 -17.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.6%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1✓ 15.9%

#4 1–0 14.4%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ogre United0.8

FS Jelgava0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 10.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.60

FS JELGAVA · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Ogre United (H) 36.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +17.4%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +9.6%

FS Jelgava (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -38.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ogre United face FS Jelgava in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ogre United a 37% chance, the draw 33% and FS Jelgava 30%, so Ogre United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ogre United and 0.9 for FS Jelgava (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ogre United are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.67 for FS Jelgava. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Ogre United vs FS Jelgava Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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