Daugavpils vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Latvia - Virsliga Regular Season - 9 Stadions Celtnieks· Daugavpils Monday, April 27, 2026 15:00

Daugavpils PPG 2.25

0-1 MISS

Super Nova PPG 1.80

Away· +6.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Super Nova 30%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Daugavpils and 1.2 for Super Nova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.80 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.0%

Odds: 1.91 EV: -25.5%

Draw 30.7%

Odds: 3.40 EV: +4.4%

Away 30.4%

Odds: 3.50 EV: +6.4%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 1.85 -4.5%

Over 3.5 29.4% Odds: 3.20 -5.9%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.70 -0.5%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Daugavpils

1.50

Super Nova

1.23

Model SuggestionBTTS -0.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -0.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+6.4%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5/Under 61%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 50% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.80)