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Daugavpils vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 9 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 15:00

Daugavpils

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Super Nova

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.0%0-24.9%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-112.0%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.7%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 52.4% 1.91 -25.5%

Draw 30.7% 29.4% 3.40 +4.4%

Away win 30.4% 28.6% 3.50 +6.4%

Over 2.5 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Over 3.5 29.4% 31.3% 3.20 -5.9%

BTTS 58.5% 58.8% 1.70 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

D 31% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daugavpils1.5

Super Nova1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 2.25

SUPER NOVA · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Daugavpils (H) 39.0%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -25.5%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.4%

Super Nova (A) 30.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Super Nova 30%, so Daugavpils are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Daugavpils and 1.2 for Super Nova (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.80 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Daugavpils vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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