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Villarreal vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 19:00

Villarreal

PPG 2.47 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Celta Vigo

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.6%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.2%1-18.4%1-24.3%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.3%3-17.5%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.3%4+-17.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 51.0% 1.96 +9.8%

Draw 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -21.5%

Away win 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -21.6%

Over 2.5 59.0% 54.6% 1.83 +8.0%

Over 3.5 42.8% 33.3% 3.00 +28.4%

BTTS 58.5% 59.9% 1.67 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 56% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.7%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Villarreal2.3

Celta Vigo1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VILLARREAL · PPG 2.47

CELTA VIGO · PPG 1.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.47) > Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Villarreal (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV +9.8%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -21.5%

Celta Vigo (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Villarreal face Celta Vigo in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Villarreal a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Celta Vigo 21%, so Villarreal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Villarreal and 1.0 for Celta Vigo (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Villarreal are averaging 2.47 points per game versus 1.69 for Celta Vigo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Villarreal vs Celta Vigo Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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