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O. Grudziadz vs Warta Poznan Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 17:30

O. Grudziadz

PPG 2.29 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Warta Poznan

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-16.5%0-24.3%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.5%1-111.0%1-27.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.3%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.0%3-15.2%3-23.4%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 50.0% 2.00 -10.8%

Draw 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -8.3%

Away win 27.6% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 35.2% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 58.8% 1.70 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob58.5%

H 45% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

O. Grudziadz1.7

Warta Poznan1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

O. GRUDZIADZ · PPG 2.29

WARTA POZNAN · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.29) > Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

O. Grudziadz (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.8%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.3%

Warta Poznan (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

O. Grudziadz face Warta Poznan in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives O. Grudziadz a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Warta Poznan 28%, so O. Grudziadz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for O. Grudziadz and 1.3 for Warta Poznan (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, O. Grudziadz are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.62 for Warta Poznan. This match finished 2-4.

O. Grudziadz vs Warta Poznan Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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