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Osasuna vs Sevilla FC Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 16:30

Osasuna

PPG 1.93 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sevilla FC

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+18.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.4%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.5%1-19.3%1-24.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.2%3-17.0%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-16.2%4+-23.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Draw 27.5% 29.4% 3.40 -6.5%

Away win 22.1% 25.6% 3.90 -13.8%

Over 2.5 59.0% 50.0% 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 37.7% 27.8% 3.60 +35.7%

BTTS 58.5% 54.6% 1.83 +7.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1✓ 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Osasuna2.1

Sevilla FC1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OSASUNA · PPG 1.93

SEVILLA FC · PPG 0.94

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=50.4%

Win probability 1X2

Osasuna (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV -2.7%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.5%

Sevilla FC (A) 22.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna face Sevilla FC in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Sevilla FC 22%, so Osasuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Osasuna and 1.0 for Sevilla FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.94 for Sevilla FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Osasuna vs Sevilla FC Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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