Osasuna vs Sevilla FC Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 32 Estadio El Sadar· Pamplona Sunday, April 26, 2026 16:30

Osasuna PPG 1.93

2-1 HIT CS3

Sevilla FC PPG 0.94

Over3.5· +35.7% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Osasuna face Sevilla FC in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Osasuna a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Sevilla FC 22%, so Osasuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Osasuna and 1.0 for Sevilla FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Osasuna are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.94 for Sevilla FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 50.4%

Odds: 1.93 EV: -2.7%

Draw 27.5%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -6.5%

Away 22.1%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -13.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 2.00 +18.0%

Over 3.5 37.7% Odds: 3.60 +35.7%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.83 +7.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✔

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Osasuna

2.13

Sevilla FC

0.98

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +18.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+35.7%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=50.4%