Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 31 Signal Iduna Park· Dortmund Sunday, April 26, 2026 15:30

Dortmund PPG 2.33

4-0 MISS

Freiburg PPG 1.00

Away· +55.0% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dortmund face Freiburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dortmund a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Freiburg 20%, so Dortmund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Dortmund and 1.0 for Freiburg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dortmund are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Freiburg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.4%

Odds: 1.36 EV: -23.3%

Draw 23.3%

Odds: 4.90 EV: +14.2%

Away 20.4%

Odds: 7.60 EV: +55.0%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.50 -9.3%

Over 3.5 45.6% Odds: 2.25 +2.6%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.73 +1.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Dortmund

2.46

Freiburg

1.01

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -9.3% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+55.0%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=56.4%