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Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 15:30

Dortmund

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Freiburg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.2%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.7%1-17.7%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.8%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-18.6%4+-24.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 73.5% 1.36 -23.3%

Draw 23.3% 20.4% 4.90 +14.2%

Away win 20.4% 13.2% 7.60 +55.0%

Over 2.5 60.5% 66.7% 1.50 -9.3%

Over 3.5 45.6% 44.4% 2.25 +2.6%

BTTS 58.5% 57.8% 1.73 +1.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dortmund2.5

Freiburg1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DORTMUND · PPG 2.33

FREIBURG · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

65%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=56.4%

Win probability 1X2

Dortmund (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -23.3%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +14.2%

Freiburg (A) 20.4%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +55.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dortmund face Freiburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dortmund a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Freiburg 20%, so Dortmund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Dortmund and 1.0 for Freiburg (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dortmund are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Freiburg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +55.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Dortmund vs Freiburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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