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Real Oviedo vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:15

Real Oviedo

PPG 1.13 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Elche

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-111.0%0-26.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.9%1-113.1%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.4%2-17.8%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.6%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 44.2% 2.26 -16.8%

Draw 32.1% 29.0% 3.45 +10.8%

Away win 31.1% 33.6% 2.98 -7.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 22.0% 28.2% 3.55 -21.9%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 1–2✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Oviedo1.2

Elche1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL OVIEDO · PPG 1.13

ELCHE · PPG 0.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.13) vs P(Home)=36.8%

Win probability 1X2

Real Oviedo (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -16.8%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +10.8%

Elche (A) 31.1%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Oviedo face Elche in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Oviedo a 37% chance, the draw 32% and Elche 31%, so Real Oviedo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Real Oviedo and 1.2 for Elche (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Oviedo are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 0.27 for Elche. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Real Oviedo vs Elche Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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