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Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:30

Stuttgart

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Werder Bremen

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-12.7%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.5%1-17.1%1-23.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.5%2-19.2%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-18.0%3-24.3%3-31.6%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-19.7%4+-25.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 65.4% 1.53 -12.9%

Draw 22.4% 23.1% 4.33 -3.0%

Away win 20.7% 18.5% 5.40 +11.8%

Over 2.5 60.5% 69.0% 1.45 -12.3%

Over 3.5 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 57% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 1–1✓ 7.1%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stuttgart2.6

Werder Bremen1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.4%

Form & verdict PPG

STUTTGART · PPG 2.33

WERDER BREMEN · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=56.9%

Win probability 1X2

Stuttgart (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -12.9%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.0%

Werder Bremen (A) 20.7%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stuttgart face Werder Bremen in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stuttgart a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Werder Bremen 21%, so Stuttgart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Stuttgart and 1.1 for Werder Bremen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stuttgart are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Werder Bremen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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