Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 31 MHPArena· Stuttgart Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:30

Stuttgart PPG 2.33

1-1 HIT CS3

Werder Bremen PPG 0.80

Away· +11.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Stuttgart face Werder Bremen in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stuttgart a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Werder Bremen 21%, so Stuttgart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Stuttgart and 1.1 for Werder Bremen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stuttgart are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.80 for Werder Bremen. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.9%

Odds: 1.53 EV: -12.9%

Draw 22.4%

Odds: 4.33 EV: -3.0%

Away 20.7%

Odds: 5.40 EV: +11.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.45 -12.3%

Over 3.5 50.4% Odds: 2.10 +5.8%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.50 -12.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✔

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Stuttgart

2.60

Werder Bremen

1.09

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -12.3% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-12.3%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=56.9%