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Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 12:00

Rayo Vallecano

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Real Sociedad

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.2%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.3%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.2%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.6%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 37.3% 2.68 +18.2%

Draw 30.1% 29.9% 3.35 +0.8%

Away win 25.7% 39.7% 2.52 -35.2%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 26.2% 30.8% 3.25 -14.8%

BTTS 57.8% 58.8% 1.70 -1.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.8%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 0–0 7.5%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rayo Vallecano1.5

Real Sociedad1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RAYO VALLECANO · PPG 1.63

REAL SOCIEDAD · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Rayo Vallecano (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +18.2%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +0.8%

Real Sociedad (A) 25.7%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -35.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rayo Vallecano face Real Sociedad in Spain - La Liga on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rayo Vallecano a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Real Sociedad 26%, so Rayo Vallecano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.1 for Real Sociedad (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rayo Vallecano are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.93 for Real Sociedad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 3-3.

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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