Rayo Vallecano vs Real Sociedad Prediction & Tips

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Spain - La Liga Regular Season - 32 Campo de Futbol de Vallecas· Madrid Sunday, April 26, 2026 12:00

Rayo Vallecano PPG 1.63

3-3 MISS

Real Sociedad PPG 0.93

Home· +18.2% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.1%

Odds: 2.68 EV: +18.2%

Draw 30.1%

Odds: 3.35 EV: +0.8%

Away 25.7%

Odds: 2.52 EV: -35.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 50.4% Odds: 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 26.2% Odds: 3.25 -14.8%

BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.70 -1.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Rayo Vallecano

1.49

Real Sociedad

1.10

Model SuggestionBTTS -1.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -1.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+18.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away POOR (0.93)