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Sandecja Nowy vs Kalisz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 28 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 16:00

Sandecja Nowy

PPG 1.54 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kalisz

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.2%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.0%1-111.0%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.8% 73.5% 1.36 -21.4%

Draw 23.1% 25.0% 4.00 -7.6%

Away win 19.1% 14.3% 7.00 +33.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% — — —

Over 3.5 28.5% — — —

BTTS 49.8% 54.1% 1.85 -7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.8%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.0%

#2 1–1✓ 11.0%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sandecja Nowy1.8

Kalisz0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SANDECJA NOWY · PPG 1.54

KALISZ · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.54) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sandecja Nowy (H) 57.8%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -21.4%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.6%

Kalisz (A) 19.1%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sandecja Nowy face Kalisz in Poland - II Liga - East on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sandecja Nowy a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Kalisz 19%, so Sandecja Nowy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sandecja Nowy and 0.9 for Kalisz (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sandecja Nowy are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.00 for Kalisz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Sandecja Nowy vs Kalisz Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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