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Coventry City vs Wrexham Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 45 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 11:00

Coventry City

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wrexham

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.0%0-21.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.8%1-17.5%1-23.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.7%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.1%3-17.9%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-19.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.4% 47.2% 2.12 +23.8%

Draw 23.8% 27.8% 3.60 -14.3%

Away win 17.8% 31.7% 3.15 -43.9%

Over 2.5 60.5% 58.8% 1.70 +2.9%

Over 3.5 45.8% 35.7% 2.80 +28.2%

BTTS 58.5% 62.5% 1.60 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.5%

H 58% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.5%

#4 3–0 8.1%

#5 3–1✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coventry City2.5

Wrexham1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COVENTRY CITY · PPG 2.36

WREXHAM · PPG 1.55

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=58.4%

Win probability 1X2

Coventry City (H) 58.4%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV +23.8%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.3%

Wrexham (A) 17.8%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -43.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coventry City face Wrexham in England - Championship on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coventry City a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Wrexham 18%, so Coventry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Coventry City and 1.0 for Wrexham (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coventry City are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.55 for Wrexham. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Coventry City vs Wrexham Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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