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NKP Podhale vs Swit Skolwin Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Regular Season - 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 10:00

NKP Podhale

PPG 2.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Swit Skolwin

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.2%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.7%1-111.1%1-25.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.6%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 67.6% 1.48 -31.3%

Draw 28.4% 25.3% 3.95 +12.2%

Away win 25.2% 19.0% 5.25 +32.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 62.5% 1.60 -14.1%

Over 3.5 31.0% — — —

BTTS 58.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -7.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.0%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NKP Podhale1.8

Swit Skolwin1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NKP PODHALE · PPG 2.00

SWIT SKOLWIN · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=46.4%

Win probability 1X2

NKP Podhale (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -31.3%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +12.2%

Swit Skolwin (A) 25.2%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

NKP Podhale face Swit Skolwin in Poland - II Liga - East on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NKP Podhale a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Swit Skolwin 25%, so NKP Podhale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for NKP Podhale and 1.0 for Swit Skolwin (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NKP Podhale are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.14 for Swit Skolwin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 3-1.

NKP Podhale vs Swit Skolwin Prediction— Poland - II Liga - East

Match Preview & Prediction

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