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Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 19:00

Atletico Madrid

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Athletic Bilbao

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 80.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+57.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-12.3%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.5%1-16.2%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-18.3%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.6%3-17.5%3-22.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.0%4+-19.6%4+-23.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 80.6% 51.3% 1.95 +57.2%

Draw 12.9% 27.8% 3.60 -53.6%

Away win 6.5% 28.2% 3.55 -76.9%

Over 2.5 64.9% 54.1% 1.85 +20.1%

Over 3.5 42.9% 32.3% 3.10 +33.0%

BTTS 44.3% 57.8% 1.73 -23.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.3%

H 81% / xG 2.7-0.6 / O2.5 65% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 3–0 11.6%

#3 1–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 4–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Madrid2.7

Athletic Bilbao0.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO MADRID · PPG 2.50

ATHLETIC BILBAO · PPG 0.80

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.80) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Madrid (H) 80.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +57.2%

Draw 12.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -53.6%

Athletic Bilbao (A) 6.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -76.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Madrid face Athletic Bilbao in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Madrid a 81% chance, the draw 13% and Athletic Bilbao 7%, so Atletico Madrid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Atletico Madrid and 0.6 for Athletic Bilbao (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Madrid are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Athletic Bilbao. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +57.2%. This match finished 3-2.

Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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