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Hamburger SV vs Hoffenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:30

Hamburger SV

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hoffenheim

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.9%0-27.7%0-35.0%0-4+3.8%1 1-05.1%1-19.9%1-29.7%1-36.3%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.2%2-16.2%2-26.1%2-34.0%2-4+3.0%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.5%3-31.7%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Draw 22.0% 24.4% 4.10 -9.8%

Away win 53.7% 57.5% 1.74 -6.6%

Over 2.5 62.2% 67.6% 1.48 -7.9%

Over 3.5 39.9% 46.5% 2.15 -14.2%

BTTS 61.3% 67.6% 1.48 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.3%

A 54% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 1–2✓ 9.7%

#3 0–1 7.9%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 1–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamburger SV1.3

Hoffenheim2.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMBURGER SV · PPG 1.40

HOFFENHEIM · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.40) vs Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Hamburger SV (H) 24.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -9.8%

Hoffenheim (A) 53.7%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamburger SV face Hoffenheim in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamburger SV a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Hoffenheim 54%, so Hoffenheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hamburger SV and 2.0 for Hoffenheim (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamburger SV are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.73 for Hoffenheim. This match finished 1-2.

Hamburger SV vs Hoffenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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