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Valencia vs Girona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 16:30

Valencia

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Girona

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 48.1% — a clear edge.

+19.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-16.3%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.9%1-111.1%1-25.1%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.2%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 48.1% 2.08 +19.0%

Draw 23.3% 29.9% 3.35 -21.9%

Away win 19.6% 29.4% 3.40 -33.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 52.6% 1.90 -3.9%

Over 3.5 28.6% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

BTTS 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.2%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 11.1%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valencia1.8

Girona0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENCIA · PPG 1.53

GIRONA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Valencia (H) 57.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV +19.0%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -21.9%

Girona (A) 19.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -33.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valencia face Girona in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valencia a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Girona 20%, so Valencia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Valencia and 0.9 for Girona (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valencia are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.00 for Girona. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Valencia vs Girona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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