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Hull City U21 vs Swansea City U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Regular Season ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 12:00

Hull City U21

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Swansea City U21

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLW ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.4%0-22.9%0-31.7%0-4+1.0%1 1-04.4%1-17.5%1-26.4%1-33.6%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-18.3%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.6%3-16.1%3-25.2%3-33.0%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.6%4+-24.8%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 40.0% 2.50 +23.3%

Draw 21.5% 25.0% 4.00 -8.4%

Away win 29.2% 44.4% 2.25 -20.6%

Over 2.5 67.1% 80.0% 1.25 -16.1%

Over 3.5 45.0% 58.8% 1.70 -23.5%

BTTS 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Home O1.5 66.1% 61.7% 1.62 +7.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 65.4% 1.53 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 21%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 49% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 1–1 7.5%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.4%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hull City U212.2

Swansea City U211.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HULL CITY U21 · PPG 1.45

SWANSEA CITY U21 · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.50 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hull City U21 (H) 49.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +23.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.4%

Swansea City U21 (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hull City U21 face Swansea City U21 in England - Professional Development League on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hull City U21 a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Swansea City U21 29%, so Hull City U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Hull City U21 and 1.7 for Swansea City U21 (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hull City U21 are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.43 for Swansea City U21. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Hull City U21 vs Swansea City U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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