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Swansea City U21 vs Peterborough United U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Regular Season ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 11:00

Swansea City U21

PPG 1.52 · HOME

LAST 5

LLW ··

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Peterborough United U21

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.4%0-23.7%0-32.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-05.0%1-18.6%1-27.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.2%3-15.5%3-24.7%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-14.2%4+-23.6%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 55.6% 1.80 -28.0%

Draw 24.4% 25.0% 4.00 -1.4%

Away win 35.6% 29.9% 3.35 +19.3%

Over 2.5 61.6% 74.1% 1.35 -16.8%

Over 3.5 39.3% 54.1% 1.85 -27.3%

BTTS 60.5% 75.2% 1.33 -19.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 69.0% 1.45 -18.4%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 21%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.5%

H 40% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 7.3%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Swansea City U212.0

Peterborough United U211.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SWANSEA CITY U21 · PPG 1.52

PETERBOROUGH UNITED U21 · PPG 1.65

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.27 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Swansea City U21 (H) 40.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -28.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.4%

Peterborough United U21 (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Swansea City U21 face Peterborough United U21 in England - Professional Development League on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Swansea City U21 a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Peterborough United U21 36%, so Swansea City U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Swansea City U21 and 1.7 for Peterborough United U21 (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Swansea City U21 are averaging 1.52 points per game versus 1.65 for Peterborough United U21. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Swansea City U21 vs Peterborough United U21 Prediction— England - Professional Development League

Match Preview & Prediction

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