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Getafe vs FC Barcelona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:15

Getafe

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

FC Barcelona

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

Away 58% chance

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-113.3%0-210.2%0-35.2%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.6%2-15.5%2-24.2%2-32.2%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.1%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.5% 20.0% 5.00 +12.5%

Draw 25.8% 26.3% 3.80 -2.0%

Away win 51.7% 60.6% 1.65 -14.7%

Over 2.5 44.1% 54.1% 1.85 -18.4%

Over 3.5 23.0% 31.3% 3.20 -26.4%

BTTS 46.9% 54.6% 1.83 -14.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 94 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -2.3%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob46.9%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.3%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–2✓ 10.2%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Getafe0.9

FC Barcelona1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GETAFE · PPG 1.40

FC BARCELONA · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

58%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Getafe (H) 22.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.5%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.0%

FC Barcelona (A) 51.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Getafe face FC Barcelona in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Getafe a 23% chance, the draw 26% and FC Barcelona 52%, so FC Barcelona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Getafe and 1.5 for FC Barcelona (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Getafe are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.07 for FC Barcelona. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 0-2.

Getafe vs FC Barcelona Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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