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Stoke City vs Portsmouth Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Stoke City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Portsmouth

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 37.3% — a clear edge.

+61.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-16.6%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.3%1-111.0%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.1%3-15.1%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.3% 37.3% 2.68 +61.6%

Draw 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -21.1%

Away win 15.8% 39.2% 2.55 -59.7%

Over 2.5 42.7% 51.8% 1.93 -17.6%

Over 3.5 21.9% 29.9% 3.35 -26.6%

BTTS 41.6% 57.8% 1.73 -28.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob41.6%

H 60% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stoke City1.7

Portsmouth0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STOKE CITY · PPG 1.50

PORTSMOUTH · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Stoke City (H) 60.3%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +61.6%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -21.1%

Portsmouth (A) 15.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -59.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stoke City face Portsmouth in England - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stoke City a 60% chance, the draw 24% and Portsmouth 16%, so Stoke City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Stoke City and 0.7 for Portsmouth (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stoke City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Portsmouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +61.6%. This match finished 1-3.

Stoke City vs Portsmouth Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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