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Oxford Utd vs Sheffield Wed Prediction— England - Championship

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Oxford Utd

PPG 1.18 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sheffield Wed

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-15.4%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.8%1-19.1%1-22.1%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.6%2-17.6%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.3%3-14.2%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-12.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.4% 69.4% 1.44 -2.9%

Draw 22.9% 23.0% 4.35 -0.4%

Away win 9.7% 14.7% 6.80 -34.0%

Over 2.5 35.9% 54.1% 1.85 -33.6%

Over 3.5 16.7% 31.3% 3.20 -46.6%

BTTS 29.9% 48.8% 2.05 -38.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -12.7%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob29.9%

H 67% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.8%

#2 2–0 16.6%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 3–0 9.3%

#5 1–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oxford Utd1.7

Sheffield Wed0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.9% · O3.5 PROB 16.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OXFORD UTD · PPG 1.18

SHEFFIELD WED · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.18), Away POOR (0.36) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Oxford Utd (H) 67.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -2.9%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -0.4%

Sheffield Wed (A) 9.7%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV -34.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oxford Utd face Sheffield Wed in England - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oxford Utd a 67% chance, the draw 23% and Sheffield Wed 10%, so Oxford Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Oxford Utd and 0.5 for Sheffield Wed (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oxford Utd are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.36 for Sheffield Wed. This match finished 4-1.

Oxford Utd vs Sheffield Wed Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Championship Predictions