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Norwich City vs Swansea City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Norwich City

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Swansea City

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Home 59% chance

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.8%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.1%1-111.4%1-25.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.2%3-15.4%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% 59.5% 1.68 -5.1%

Draw 24.2% 25.6% 3.90 -5.6%

Away win 19.3% 21.5% 4.65 -10.3%

Over 2.5 46.8% 59.9% 1.67 -21.8%

Over 3.5 25.3% 37.0% 2.70 -31.7%

BTTS 47.2% 60.6% 1.65 -22.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.1%

#2 1–1✓ 11.4%

#3 2–0 11.0%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Norwich City1.7

Swansea City0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORWICH CITY · PPG 1.32

SWANSEA CITY · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.32), Away AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

Norwich City (H) 56.5%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -5.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.6%

Swansea City (A) 19.3%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Norwich City face Swansea City in England - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norwich City a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Swansea City 19%, so Norwich City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Norwich City and 0.9 for Swansea City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norwich City are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.09 for Swansea City. This match finished 1-1.

Norwich City vs Swansea City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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