Norwich City vs Swansea City Prediction— England - Championship

England - Championship Regular Season - 45 Carrow Road· Norwich Saturday, April 25, 2026 14:00

Norwich City PPG 1.32

1-1 HIT CS2

Swansea City PPG 1.09

Home· -5.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Norwich City face Swansea City in England - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Norwich City a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Swansea City 19%, so Norwich City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Norwich City and 0.9 for Swansea City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Norwich City are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.09 for Swansea City. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.5%

Odds: 1.68 EV: -5.1%

Draw 24.2%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -5.6%

Away 19.3%

Odds: 4.65 EV: -10.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.8% Odds: 1.67 -21.8%

Over 3.5 25.3% Odds: 2.70 -31.7%

BTTS 47.2% Odds: 1.65 -22.1%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✔

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Norwich City

1.68

Swansea City

0.87

Model SuggestionHome -5.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -5.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 59%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -1.0%

Bet Hit 56% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.32), Away AVERAGE (1.09)