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Birmingham City vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 14:00

Birmingham City

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bristol City

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Home 57% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-17.6%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.1%1-111.9%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-14.9%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 58.1% 1.72 -9.0%

Draw 25.3% 27.0% 3.70 -6.4%

Away win 21.8% 22.0% 4.55 -0.8%

Over 2.5 45.2% 55.6% 1.80 -18.6%

Over 3.5 23.9% 33.3% 3.00 -28.3%

BTTS 47.4% 57.8% 1.73 -18.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.4%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.1%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1✓ 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Birmingham City1.6

Bristol City0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BIRMINGHAM CITY · PPG 1.86

BRISTOL CITY · PPG 1.41

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.41)

Win probability 1X2

Birmingham City (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -9.0%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.4%

Bristol City (A) 21.8%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Birmingham City face Bristol City in England - Championship on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Birmingham City a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Bristol City 22%, so Birmingham City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Birmingham City and 0.9 for Bristol City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Birmingham City are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.41 for Bristol City. This match finished 2-1.

Birmingham City vs Bristol City Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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