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Wolfsburg vs Monchengladbach Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:30

Wolfsburg

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Monchengladbach

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.9%0-25.0%0-32.8%0-4+1.7%1 1-05.8%1-19.8%1-28.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.9%2-18.2%2-26.9%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.7%3-14.6%3-23.8%3-32.2%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.8%4+-22.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 44.6% 2.24 -14.4%

Draw 22.8% 27.8% 3.60 -17.9%

Away win 39.0% 34.2% 2.92 +13.9%

Over 2.5 65.2% 61.7% 1.62 +5.6%

Over 3.5 43.2% 39.2% 2.55 +10.2%

BTTS 66.1% 66.7% 1.50 -0.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob66.1%

A 39% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wolfsburg1.7

Monchengladbach1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLFSBURG · PPG 0.60

MONCHENGLADBACH · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Wolfsburg (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV -14.4%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -17.9%

Monchengladbach (A) 39.0%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +13.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wolfsburg face Monchengladbach in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wolfsburg a 38% chance, the draw 23% and Monchengladbach 39%, so Monchengladbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wolfsburg and 1.7 for Monchengladbach (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wolfsburg are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.87 for Monchengladbach. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Wolfsburg vs Monchengladbach Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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