Today / Germany - Bundesliga / Heidenheim vs Sankt Pauli

Heidenheim vs Sankt Pauli Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:30

Heidenheim

PPG 0.93 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sankt Pauli

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.7%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.4%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.4%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 44.2% 2.26 -5.3%

Draw 26.0% 29.9% 3.35 -12.9%

Away win 32.1% 32.8% 3.05 -2.1%

Over 2.5 49.0% 51.8% 1.93 -5.4%

Over 3.5 27.2% 29.9% 3.35 -8.9%

BTTS 53.3% 57.8% 1.73 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.3%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidenheim1.4

Sankt Pauli1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDENHEIM · PPG 0.93

SANKT PAULI · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.93) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Heidenheim (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -5.3%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -12.9%

Sankt Pauli (A) 32.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidenheim face Sankt Pauli in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidenheim a 42% chance, the draw 26% and Sankt Pauli 32%, so Heidenheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Heidenheim and 1.2 for Sankt Pauli (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidenheim are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.60 for Sankt Pauli. This match finished 2-0.

Heidenheim vs Sankt Pauli Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Bundesliga Predictions