Heidenheim vs Sankt Pauli Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 31 Voith-Arena· Heidenheim an der Brenz Saturday, April 25, 2026 13:30

Heidenheim PPG 0.93

2-0 MISS

Sankt Pauli PPG 0.60

Away· -2.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidenheim face Sankt Pauli in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidenheim a 42% chance, the draw 26% and Sankt Pauli 32%, so Heidenheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Heidenheim and 1.2 for Sankt Pauli (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidenheim are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.60 for Sankt Pauli. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.9%

Odds: 2.26 EV: -5.3%

Draw 26.0%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -12.9%

Away 32.1%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -2.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.0% Odds: 1.93 -5.4%

Over 3.5 27.2% Odds: 3.35 -8.9%

BTTS 53.3% Odds: 1.73 -7.8%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Heidenheim

1.42

Sankt Pauli

1.21

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

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Home slight advantage: POOR (0.93) > Away POOR (0.60)