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FSV Mainz vs Bayern Munich Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:30

FSV Mainz

PPG 1.13 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Bayern Munich

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 85.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+39.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-14.9%0-28.4%0-39.7%0-4+20.1%1 1-01.1%1-14.0%1-26.8%1-37.8%1-4+16.3%2 2-00.5%2-11.6%2-22.8%2-33.2%2-4+6.6%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.7%3-30.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 5.1% 23.0% 4.35 -77.8%

Draw 9.2% 22.5% 4.45 -59.1%

Away win 85.8% 61.7% 1.62 +39.0%

Over 2.5 79.7% 70.4% 1.42 +13.2%

Over 3.5 61.5% 47.6% 2.10 +29.1%

BTTS 53.7% 67.6% 1.48 -20.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob53.7%

A 86% / xG 0.8-3.4 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.7%

#2 0–2 8.4%

#3 0–4 8.3%

#4 1–3 7.8%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FSV Mainz0.8

Bayern Munich3.4

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.7% · O3.5 PROB 61.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FSV MAINZ · PPG 1.13

BAYERN MUNICH · PPG 2.60

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

FSV Mainz (H) 5.1%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -77.8%

Draw 9.2%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -59.1%

Bayern Munich (A) 85.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +39.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FSV Mainz face Bayern Munich in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FSV Mainz a 5% chance, the draw 9% and Bayern Munich 86%, so Bayern Munich are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for FSV Mainz and 3.4 for Bayern Munich (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FSV Mainz are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 2.60 for Bayern Munich. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +39.0%. This match finished 3-4.

FSV Mainz vs Bayern Munich Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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