FC Koln vs Leverkusen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Germany - Bundesliga Regular Season - 31 RheinEnergieStadion· Cologne Saturday, April 25, 2026 13:30

FC Koln PPG 1.27

1-2 HIT MostLikelyScore

Leverkusen PPG 1.67

Over3.5· +23.1% ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Koln face Leverkusen in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Koln a 28% chance, the draw 21% and Leverkusen 52%, so Leverkusen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Koln and 2.2 for Leverkusen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Koln are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.67 for Leverkusen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 27.5%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -2.4%

Draw 20.6%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -20.7%

Away 51.9%

Odds: 1.90 EV: -1.4%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 72.0% Odds: 1.57 +13.0%

Over 3.5 51.3% Odds: 2.40 +23.1%

BTTS 70.0% Odds: 1.50 +5.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✔

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-2 ✘

4th 1-3 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

FC Koln

1.56

Leverkusen

2.18

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +13.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+23.1%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 73%

BTTS/No 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 1.8%

Bet Hit 63% (16 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.27) vs Away GOOD (1.67)