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FC Koln vs Leverkusen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:30

FC Koln

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Leverkusen

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+13.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-15.2%0-25.7%0-34.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-03.7%1-18.1%1-28.8%1-36.4%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.9%2-16.3%2-26.9%2-35.0%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.5%3-13.3%3-23.6%3-32.6%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.8%4+-22.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% 28.2% 3.55 -2.4%

Draw 20.6% 26.0% 3.85 -20.7%

Away win 51.9% 52.6% 1.90 -1.4%

Over 2.5 72.0% 63.7% 1.57 +13.0%

Over 3.5 51.3% 41.7% 2.40 +23.1%

BTTS 70.0% 66.7% 1.50 +5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob70.0%

A 52% / xG 1.6-2.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 8.8%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Koln1.6

Leverkusen2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KOLN · PPG 1.27

LEVERKUSEN · PPG 1.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

66%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.27) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

FC Koln (H) 27.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.4%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -20.7%

Leverkusen (A) 51.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Koln face Leverkusen in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Koln a 28% chance, the draw 21% and Leverkusen 52%, so Leverkusen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Koln and 2.2 for Leverkusen (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Koln are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.67 for Leverkusen. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.1%. This match finished 1-2.

FC Koln vs Leverkusen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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