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FC Augsburg vs E. Frankfurt Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:30

FC Augsburg

PPG 1.47 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

E. Frankfurt

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+13.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.0%0-24.3%0-33.0%0-4+2.6%1 1-03.5%1-17.4%1-27.9%1-35.6%1-4+4.9%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.0%3-14.2%3-24.5%3-33.2%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.9%4+-23.1%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 40.0% 2.50 -14.5%

Draw 20.6% 27.0% 3.70 -23.8%

Away win 45.2% 40.0% 2.50 +13.0%

Over 2.5 75.9% 66.7% 1.50 +13.9%

Over 3.5 56.2% 44.4% 2.25 +26.5%

BTTS 74.2% 70.4% 1.42 +5.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob74.2%

A 45% / xG 1.8-2.1 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.9%

#2 1–1✓ 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Augsburg1.8

E. Frankfurt2.1

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC AUGSBURG · PPG 1.47

E. FRANKFURT · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

FC Augsburg (H) 34.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -14.5%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -23.8%

E. Frankfurt (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Augsburg face E. Frankfurt in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Augsburg a 34% chance, the draw 21% and E. Frankfurt 45%, so E. Frankfurt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Augsburg and 2.1 for E. Frankfurt (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Augsburg are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.20 for E. Frankfurt. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +26.5%. This match finished 1-1.

FC Augsburg vs E. Frankfurt Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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