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Spakenburg vs Rijnsburgse B. Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Spakenburg

PPG 1.87 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rijnsburgse B.

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 87.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+22.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.6%0-22.0%0-31.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-01.7%1-14.1%1-25.0%1-34.1%1-4+4.5%2 2-02.2%2-15.3%2-26.5%2-35.3%2-4+5.8%3 3-01.9%3-14.6%3-25.6%3-34.6%3-4+5.0%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-15.5%4+-26.8%4+-35.5%4+-4+6.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 41.7% 2.40 +3.9%

Draw 18.4% 25.6% 3.90 -28.2%

Away win 38.4% 43.5% 2.30 -11.7%

Over 2.5 87.8% 71.4% 1.40 +22.9%

Over 3.5 73.9% — — —

BTTS 84.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob84.5%

H 43% / xG 2.6-2.4 / O2.5 88% / BTTS 84%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.5%

#2 3–2✓ 5.6%

#3 2–1 5.3%

#4 2–3 5.3%

#5 1–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spakenburg2.6

Rijnsburgse B.2.4

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 87.8% · O3.5 PROB 73.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPAKENBURG · PPG 1.87

RIJNSBURGSE B. · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.87) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Spakenburg (H) 43.3%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +3.9%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -28.2%

Rijnsburgse B. (A) 38.4%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spakenburg face Rijnsburgse B. in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spakenburg a 43% chance, the draw 18% and Rijnsburgse B. 38%, so Spakenburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Spakenburg and 2.4 for Rijnsburgse B. (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 88% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 85% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spakenburg are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.53 for Rijnsburgse B.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Spakenburg vs Rijnsburgse B. Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

More Netherlands - Tweede Divisie Predictions