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Al Arabi vs Al Sailiya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Monday, April 13, 2026

Al Arabi

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Al Sailiya

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.2%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.1%1-111.0%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.3%3-15.8%3-22.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-13.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 63.7% 1.57 -9.6%

Draw 23.2% 25.3% 3.95 -8.4%

Away win 19.2% 20.0% 5.00 -4.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 65.4% 1.53 -22.9%

Over 3.5 28.3% 43.5% 2.30 -34.9%

BTTS 49.8% 66.7% 1.50 -25.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 83%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.8%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 11.0%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Arabi1.8

Al Sailiya0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ARABI · PPG 1.50

AL SAILIYA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Al Arabi (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -9.6%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.4%

Al Sailiya (A) 19.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Arabi face Al Sailiya in Qatar - Stars League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Arabi a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Al Sailiya 19%, so Al Arabi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Arabi and 0.9 for Al Sailiya (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Arabi are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Al Sailiya.

Al Arabi vs Al Sailiya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Qatar - Stars League Predictions