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Al Shamal vs Qatar SC Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Regular Season - 17 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Al Shamal

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Qatar SC

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-17.6%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-112.0%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.4%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-15.0%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 55.6% 1.80 -6.4%

Draw 25.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.8%

Away win 22.7% 28.6% 3.50 -20.5%

Over 2.5 46.4% — — —

Over 3.5 24.9% — — —

BTTS 48.7% 64.5% 1.55 -24.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 83%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.7%

H 52% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.6%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Shamal1.6

Qatar SC1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL SHAMAL · PPG 1.80

QATAR SC · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Al Shamal (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -6.4%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.8%

Qatar SC (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -20.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Shamal face Qatar SC in Qatar - Stars League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Shamal a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Qatar SC 23%, so Al Shamal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Shamal and 1.0 for Qatar SC (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Shamal are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Qatar SC.

Al Shamal vs Qatar SC Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Qatar - Stars League Predictions