Today / Qatar - Stars League / Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya

Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Regular Season - 22 ·Monday, April 27, 2026, 14:15

Al Gharafa

PPG 2.10 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Al Shahaniya

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.2%0-23.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.5%1-110.1%1-25.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.4%3-16.4%3-23.8%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.9%4+-22.9%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 38.1% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 83%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 83%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Gharafa1.9

Al Shahaniya1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL GHARAFA · PPG 2.10

AL SHAHANIYA · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.10) vs P(Home)=46.3%

Win probability 1X2

Al Gharafa (H) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Al Shahaniya (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Gharafa face Al Shahaniya in Qatar - Stars League on Monday, April 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Gharafa a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Al Shahaniya 25%, so Al Gharafa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Gharafa and 1.2 for Al Shahaniya (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Gharafa are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.70 for Al Shahaniya. This match finished 1-1.

Al Gharafa vs Al Shahaniya Prediction— Qatar - Stars League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Qatar - Stars League Predictions