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Jong Sparta vs Barendrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 13:00

Jong Sparta

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Barendrecht

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 93.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a clear edge.

+20.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.6%0-20.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-00.9%1-12.1%1-22.5%1-32.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-01.6%2-13.9%2-24.6%2-33.6%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.0%3-14.7%3-25.6%3-34.4%3-4+4.5%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-110.9%4+-212.9%4+-310.2%4+-4+10.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 46.5% 2.15 +33.3%

Draw 15.0% 25.0% 4.00 -40.0%

Away win 23.0% 40.0% 2.50 -42.5%

Over 2.5 93.8% 78.1% 1.28 +20.1%

Over 3.5 84.8% — — —

BTTS 88.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob88.2%

H 62% / xG 3.6-2.4 / O2.5 94% / BTTS 88%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.6%

#2 4–2 5.0%

#3 3–1 4.7%

#4 2–2 4.6%

#5 3–3 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jong Sparta3.6

Barendrecht2.4

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 93.8% · O3.5 PROB 84.8%

Form & verdict PPG

JONG SPARTA · PPG 1.40

BARENDRECHT · PPG 1.13

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Jong Sparta (H) 62.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +33.3%

Draw 15.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -40.0%

Barendrecht (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -42.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jong Sparta face Barendrecht in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jong Sparta a 62% chance, the draw 15% and Barendrecht 23%, so Jong Sparta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Jong Sparta and 2.4 for Barendrecht (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 94% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 88% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jong Sparta are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.13 for Barendrecht. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +33.3%. This match finished 4-1.

Jong Sparta vs Barendrecht Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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