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HSV Hoek vs Jong Almere C. Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:30

HSV Hoek

PPG 1.93 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Jong Almere C.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.0%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.8%1-19.9%1-26.2%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.0%3-16.3%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.9%4+-23.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 62.5% 1.60 -13.8%

Draw 21.9% 25.0% 4.00 -12.4%

Away win 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -2.8%

Over 2.5 62.4% — — —

Over 3.5 40.2% — — —

BTTS 61.5% 71.4% 1.40 -13.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 28%

ROI 27.0%

Bet Hit 86%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HSV Hoek2.0

Jong Almere C.1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HSV HOEK · PPG 1.93

JONG ALMERE C. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=53.9%

Win probability 1X2

HSV Hoek (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -13.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -12.4%

Jong Almere C. (A) 24.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

HSV Hoek face Jong Almere C. in Netherlands - Tweede Divisie on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HSV Hoek a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Jong Almere C. 24%, so HSV Hoek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for HSV Hoek and 1.3 for Jong Almere C. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HSV Hoek are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.00 for Jong Almere C.. This match finished 4-0.

HSV Hoek vs Jong Almere C. Prediction— Netherlands - Tweede Divisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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