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TSV Essingen vs Denzlingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg - 29 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:30

TSV Essingen

PPG 1.79 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Denzlingen

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.1%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.0%1-24.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.2%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.5%4+-23.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% — — —

Draw 19.7% — — —

Away win 17.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.0% — — —

Over 3.5 40.8% — — —

BTTS 58.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.0%

H 63% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 9.3%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TSV Essingen2.2

Denzlingen1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TSV ESSINGEN · PPG 1.79

DENZLINGEN · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.79) vs P(Home)=62.9%

Win probability 1X2

TSV Essingen (H) 62.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Denzlingen (A) 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

TSV Essingen face Denzlingen in Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TSV Essingen a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Denzlingen 17%, so TSV Essingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for TSV Essingen and 1.1 for Denzlingen (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TSV Essingen are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 0.92 for Denzlingen. This match finished 3-2.

TSV Essingen vs Denzlingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg

Match Preview & Prediction

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