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Kottern vs Nordlingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Bayern Süd - 31 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Kottern

PPG 1.21 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Nordlingen

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.8%0-23.9%0-32.6%0-4+2.1%1 1-03.7%1-17.4%1-27.6%1-35.1%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.5%2-17.2%2-27.3%2-35.0%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.3%3-14.7%3-24.7%3-33.2%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.5%4+-23.6%4+-32.4%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% — — —

Draw 20.8% — — —

Away win 41.5% — — —

Over 2.5 75.8% — — —

Over 3.5 56.1% — — —

BTTS 74.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob74.4%

A 42% / xG 1.9-2.0 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 74%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.6%

#2 1–1 7.4%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kottern1.9

Nordlingen2.0

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.8% · O3.5 PROB 56.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KOTTERN · PPG 1.21

NORDLINGEN · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.21), Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Kottern (H) 37.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nordlingen (A) 41.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kottern face Nordlingen in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kottern a 38% chance, the draw 21% and Nordlingen 42%, so Nordlingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kottern and 2.0 for Nordlingen (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kottern are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.08 for Nordlingen. This match finished 1-4.

Kottern vs Nordlingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Süd

Match Preview & Prediction

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