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Plaza Colonia vs Uruguay Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 17 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 22:00

Plaza Colonia

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Uruguay Montevideo

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-16.7%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.6%1-110.8%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.8%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.4%3-14.8%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-12.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Draw 24.0% 33.3% 3.00 -16.8%

Away win 21.4% 21.7% 4.60 -0.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 42.6% 2.35 +18.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

Home O1.5 48.1% 48.1% 2.08 +0.1%

Away O1.5 18.6% 22.7% 4.40 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -39.5%

Bet Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plaza Colonia1.6

Uruguay Montevideo0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PLAZA COLONIA · PPG 1.80

URUGUAY MONTEVIDEO · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Plaza Colonia (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.7%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.8%

Uruguay Montevideo (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Plaza Colonia face Uruguay Montevideo in Uruguay - Segunda División on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plaza Colonia a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Uruguay Montevideo 21%, so Plaza Colonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Plaza Colonia and 0.7 for Uruguay Montevideo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plaza Colonia are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.90 for Uruguay Montevideo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%.

Plaza Colonia vs Uruguay Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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